And so it begins

It hasn’t been but a mere three days since the New Hampshire primary and well, there has been so much “drama” surrounding these events that my head threatens to explode trying to keep track.Then a close friend pointed me to this article. To follow along with what I am about to say, it would be helpful to read the article first.

The dilemma or the issue at hand is that Sen. Barack Obama lost New Hampshire after every poll had him leading Sen. Hillary Clinton by nearly ten points (Clinton ended up with the win). So were the polls wrong?

Note that this wasn’t the case with the Republican primary. Sen. John Mccain won with about the same margin that the polls had him leading with.

Andrew Kohut, President of the Pew Research Center and the author of the article claims that a possible explanation for this discrepancy is “the longstanding pattern of pre-election polls overstating support for black candidates among white voters, particularly white voters who are poor.” Kohut is making the argument (backed by personal research) that college educated white voters with higher socioeconomic status tend to participate in polls. These polls are then expanded as a representation of the entire population of white voters and in the case of New Hampshire, they were way off. The implication being that college educated white voters are open to voting for Obama while voters without a college education are less likely to do the same (the votes reflected this trend).

So here is the million dollar question; why won’t the aforementioned group vote for Obama? I have my answer but I am not going to push it on you. I want to hear yours.

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5 Comments to “And so it begins”

  1. There’s no doubt people will often say what they think the pollster wants to hear, or deliberately say the opposite to have their idea of fun with the process. People love to screw with the media, with their predictions and projections. People love to rip the weather person when they screw up. I never thought polling made any sense anyway. It was nothing short of amazing Obama won Iowa and almost won New Hampshire – both states are as white as the snow on the ground. I don’t think racism is tied to education one way or the other – it’s more a product of one’s individual environment growing up. Tribute to his people they worked those states as hard as they did.

  2. I see where you are coming from but I do disagree on racism not being tied to education. Racism usually is a result of a lack of education or bad education if you really think about it. It isn’t really environment but indoctrination of some sort which is education.

  3. In my experiences, I have found that poor white people have always displayed racist tendencies more so than those who have have money, and therefore are usually better educated. Poor white people often feel that they have more to lose and oftentime have a false sense of insecurity which causes them maintain a common ground with those who are like them, in order to make themselves feel superior to another class of people(usually black people). Since I’m 43 and older than you guys, this is what we used to refer to as trailer park or white t—– in the old days. However, according the Jerry Springer shows I’ve seen lately, poor white people may just be intermingling with blacks more. (But I really don’t think so–at least not in my neighborhood.) Also, educated people of any race tend to vote based upon the issues and can look beyond race or party line more so than those who are not educated (uneducated people may not really read the issues,look at the debates, or blogg). Uneducated people, who usually live in lower economic standards, have to increasingly deal with rising crime rates as these issues really do “hit home.” Unfortunately for us, we are usually the people making the news–thus there might me a blanket dislike for all blacks. Additinally, people have a tendency to vote on “imaginary” polls for candiates who support the issues and ideals they truly believe in. However, when voting “real” votes, these same voters often chicken out and vote for what is status quo. I.e., blacks vote for democrats in the actual election, even though their ideal may lean more towards the independent – just because it’s what’s expected.

  4. I have two thoughts…one, I definitely, WOD-Without A Doubt, believe “lack of education” equates to a host of problems, including racism. Two, the Bradley Effect is possible here too. The article you refer to above is now offline N/A so I did not get to read it; but, it is very possible that the white persons “polled” said they would vote for Obama..but then behind closed doors, they chose NOT to vote for Obama. It could be a mixture/combination of both one and two. Bradley was the former (and extremely popular Mayor of LA) running for Governor of Cali in 1982 hence the name Bradley Effect after losing the bid despite being HEAVILY favored to win the gubernatorial race according to the so-called expert, relaible polls.

  5. Welcome and thank you for your comment. Yeah I think that might be it. People always say things that they think you might want to hear in polls or when asked a question. Nobody ever really tries to sound bad or racist or unfair. However, behind closed doors, their real opinions tend to come out.

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