Posts tagged ‘New Hampshire’

January 11, 2008

And so it begins

It hasn’t been but a mere three days since the New Hampshire primary and well, there has been so much “drama” surrounding these events that my head threatens to explode trying to keep track.Then a close friend pointed me to this article. To follow along with what I am about to say, it would be helpful to read the article first.

The dilemma or the issue at hand is that Sen. Barack Obama lost New Hampshire after every poll had him leading Sen. Hillary Clinton by nearly ten points (Clinton ended up with the win). So were the polls wrong?

Note that this wasn’t the case with the Republican primary. Sen. John Mccain won with about the same margin that the polls had him leading with.

Andrew Kohut, President of the Pew Research Center and the author of the article claims that a possible explanation for this discrepancy is “the longstanding pattern of pre-election polls overstating support for black candidates among white voters, particularly white voters who are poor.” Kohut is making the argument (backed by personal research) that college educated white voters with higher socioeconomic status tend to participate in polls. These polls are then expanded as a representation of the entire population of white voters and in the case of New Hampshire, they were way off. The implication being that college educated white voters are open to voting for Obama while voters without a college education are less likely to do the same (the votes reflected this trend).

So here is the million dollar question; why won’t the aforementioned group vote for Obama? I have my answer but I am not going to push it on you. I want to hear yours.